- Published on 03 December 2014
Independent analysis of global supply, demand and above ground stocks of platinum
London, 3 December 2014: The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) today announces the launch of Platinum Quarterly - the first independent, freely-available, quarterly analysis of the global platinum market. This inaugural Platinum Quarterly incorporates analysis of annual platinum supply and demand for 2013 and 2014. Importantly, the first analysis of quarterly supply and demand (Q3 2014) and an estimate of global above ground stocks of platinum are also presented.
Commissioned by WPIC, the Platinum Quarterly is based upon independent research and detailed analysis conducted by SFA (Oxford).
Overview of key data presented in the first Platinum Quarterly:
Total global supply of platinum is expected to be 7.1 million ounces in 2014 (9% lower year-on-year), heavily impacted by the unprecedented South African mining strike.
- Total global annual supply from mining is expected to be 13% below 2013 levels by year-end 2014, largely attributable to the five-month mining strike in South Africa.
- Global refined platinum production from mining is expected to be 22% lower in 2014. However, during the five-month industrial action, South African producers sold some metal to customers from working inventories.
- Global platinum supply from recycling in 2014 is estimated to be 2% higher, or 40 thousand ounces more, than in 2013.
Total global demand for platinum in 2014 is expected to be 6% lower than in 2013 at 8 million ounces, as a decline in investment demand offsets growth in automotive and jewellery demand.
- The two largest sources of demand are both forecast to grow in 2014.
- In 2014, demand from the automotive industry is expected to expand by 5%, or 145 thousand ounces, as platinum is already benefitting from Euro VI-compliant vehicles being manufactured.
- Global jewellery demand in 2014 is expected to continue to grow, with an additional 115 thousand ounces of demand forecast (c. +4%). Overall purchasing in China remains robust and platinum continues to make important inroads into the newer, Indian market.
- The forecast year-on-year reduction in annual global investment demand of 82%, primarily reflects the exceptional demand for Exchange Traded Fund products (ETFs) recorded in 2013.
The expected twelve-month balance of supply and demand, a shortfall of 885 thousand ounces for 2014, will place the platinum market in deficit for the third consecutive year.
- The 2014 global platinum shortfall of 885,000 oz is 27% more than the 2013 shortfall of 695,000 oz.
- The inaugural analysis of supply and demand in Q3 2014 reveals that supply exceeded demand by 155,000 oz due to low seasonal Q3 automotive demand, a reduction in investment holdings and production increases following strike resolution.
Above ground stocks, the year-end estimate of cumulative platinum holdings unrelated to measured demand segments, are forecast at 2.56 million ounces at the end of 2014.
- The last two annual platinum shortfalls have reduced above ground stocks from their level of 4.14 million ounces at the end of 2012.
Paul Wilson, chief executive officer of WPIC commented:
“One of our key objectives is to introduce greater transparency to the market. Today’s report shows that the fundamentals of the industry have become tighter. Demand has exceeded supply in each of the last three years. As a result above ground stocks have declined significantly. The markedly different profile in the 2014 third quarter analysis highlights the value of more frequent scrutiny of actual performance, and reflects seasonality as well as some investment outflows.”
The Platinum Quarterly will deliver regular and consistently presented data to the global platinum market, helping potential investors in platinum distinguish seasonal and exceptional factors from secular trends. As the data series builds, WPIC’s aim is to bring greater clarity to all participants in the platinum market and further reinforce the case for platinum as a viable long-term investment asset.
To download the first Platinum Quarterly and/or subscribe to receive it in the future, please visit our website: www.platinuminvestment.com
For any media requests, please contact Capital MSL:
+44 (0) 20 3219 8809
Notes to Editors:
About World Platinum Investment Council
The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) is a global market authority on physical platinum investment, formed to meet the growing investor demand for objective and reliable platinum market intelligence. WPIC’s mission is to stimulate global investor demand for physical platinum through both actionable insights and targeted product development.
WPIC was created in 2014 by the six leading platinum producers in South Africa: Anglo American Platinum Ltd, Aquarius Platinum Ltd, Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd, Lonmin plc, Northam Platinum Ltd and Royal Bafokeng Platinum Ltd.
For further information, please visit: www.platinuminvestment.com
About SFA (Oxford)
Founded in 2001, SFA (Oxford) is regarded as one of the most important independent authorities on the platinum group metals market. The company’s in-depth market research and integrity is underpinned by extensive consulting from mine to market to recycler, as well as an unrivalled global industry network.
SFA have a team of eleven dedicated PGM analysts with wide and varied industry expertise and knowledge, each one specialising in a core area of the value chain, as well as many internationally-based associates. SFA is able to provide its clients with answers to the most difficult questions affecting the future of the industry.
For more information go to: http://www.sfa-oxford.com
Platinum is one of the rarest metals in the world with distinctive qualities making it highly valued across a number of diverse demand segments. Platinum’s unique physical and catalytic propertieshave established its value in industrial applications. At the same time, its unique precious metal attributes have made it the premier jewellery metal.
Platinum’s supply comes from two main sources: primary mining output, and recycling, which typically comes from end of life auto catalysts and jewellery recycling. Over the last five years, between 72% and 77% of total annual platinum supply (in refined ounces) has come from primary mining output.
Global demand for platinum is growing and becoming more diverse. There are four core segments of platinum demand: automotive, industrial, jewellery and investment demand.
Platinum demand from autocatalysts has equated to between 37% and 41% of total demand in the last five years. Platinum’s diverse other industrial uses account on average for a little under 20% of total global demand (five year average). Over the same period, global annual jewellery demand has averaged 34% of total platinum demand. Investment is the smallest category of platinum demand and also the most variable over the past five years, ranging between 2% and 11% of total demand.